The year ahead for access - rental and OEM forecasts

There has been a raft of challenges for access OEMs and rental companies over the last year. An increasingly competitive marketplace is just one, with the addition of tariffs on MEWPs entering Europe from China, on top of the pre-existing ones in the US and the more recent announcement from the Trump administration that duties on aluminium and steel are also being imposed.

Confidence Index.

Then there are the implications of struggling economies in many of the mature access equipment nations and the unsettling geo-political landscape.

Rather telling is this survey’s Confidence Index, which asks those taking part to rate their business expectations for the next five years, with a top score of 100. This year the index is at its lowest rating since 2018, at 62.2 points.

Thankfully, this index figure is not entirely reflected in the wider results of the study where participants were asked to provide their expectations across a range of factors for the 12 months ahead.

Year ahead forecasts 

The forecasts from all rental and OEM participants combined are very similar to the results of last year’s Access Confidence Survey, when the markets were as nervous as they are now.

2026 prospects - all sectors.

Indeed, we have to go back to the 2022 edition of the survey that provided forecasts for 2023 to find clearly positive levels of confidence.

Looking at rental companies specifically, the forecast for 2026 is also similar to this time last year, while the figures for the manufacturers are slightly down - perhaps reflecting the stiff competition in the market for OEMs, not only from the increasing number of manufacturers entering the global marketplace from China, but also in China itself where the aerial lift sector has suffered a major downturn in recent years.

Mixed expectations

When rental companies were asked if they will be investing in new machines next year the picture is mixed, with slightly more than last year looking to grow their fleets and slightly less looking at replacement only. A higher number have no purchasing plans for the year ahead at all.

2026 prospects - rental companies.

From the manufacturers’ point of view, 50% are expecting an increase in sales in the 0-10% range for 2026, however fewer of them are forecasting above 10% growth in sales, compared to this time last year, and more respondents are expecting fewer sales.

Nevertheless, there is some growth, which reflects the differing experiences of manufacturers, depending on where their main markets lie. And it is clear that many maturing access countries are experiencing growth, such as those in the Middle East and some in Southeast Asia.

When it comes to equipment price levels in 2026 the results are more mixed, which potentially reflects the business models of different manufacturers around the world.

No doubt it has been a challenging year thus far in many global markets and judging by the comments from some of those that have taken part the sentiments seem to be similar for next year.

2026 investment in new machines - rental companies.

One general response was, “It’s been a very challenging 2025, and not it’s looking to pick up until the second quarter of 2026.”

Reenforcing this was a used equipment dealer in the UK. “The market has been very slow this year worldwide but sales into Europe have been most dramatically effected, I believe due to the Chinese tariffs now being applied.”

Another respondent in Europe said, “The market is saturated. There are far too many OEMs just dumping equipment.”

The same feelings were expressed about the North American market. One survey participant said, “Business has slowed due to many factors, including uncertainty about the effects of pending tariffs and concerns about a possible recession. Hopefully, this will improve in 2026.”

In Australia rental rates have been squeezed. “Victoria hire rates have decreased 1-15%. They are at the lowest I have seen in 38 years and are getting worse – it is a race to the bottom. For example, some companies are offering a 19ft scissor lift at AU$60-$80 per week and a 46ft boom at $400-$500 per week.”

2026 OEM sales prospects.

Yet, there are areas of positivity, even in the established markets. Eastern Europe is a bright spot in the continent for access, due to it not being as mature as other parts of the region and is therefore seeing adoption. A respondent in Slovakia said market growth had been at 5% in 2025, adding, “moderate growth is expected in 2026, between 3-5%.”

And even in mature parts of the continent there are variations in experience with some having experienced a good year. A rental company from Finland said, “2026 will be great, thanks to big projects like data centres, hospitals, etc., here in Finland.”

2026 expected price changes - OEMs.

Similarly to Eastern Europe, maturing markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Turkey are seeing continued growth, even if those markets are just as competitive as the mature ones. Supporting this is a comment from Malaysia. “Overall demand will increase 20%-30% in 2026 versus 2025.”

The access sector has an advantage over other product types in that there are still so many relatively new and maturing markets, which can be both a blessing and a cause of challenges as competition gets focused in these growth areas.

However, while there are clear challenges, this year’s Access Confidence Survey does point to a dynamic sector with plenty of potential going forward.